The Iowa Straw Poll was held Saturday in Ames, Iowa with Michelle Bachmann coming in 1st, with Ron Paul in a close second, and Tim Pawlenty in a distant third. While the major media is most assuredly going to have a field day in talking up the results, I would not read too much into the results for several reasons.
First it should be noted that Mitt Romney did not participate in the poll, apparently neither did Newt Gingrich.
Second, while the major media doesn’t mention it much, Michelle Bachmann is originally from Waterloo, Iowa; and the folks in Iowa always love a native born son or daughter. The people of Iowa are very good at keeping their thoughts to themselves and only telling others what they want to them to know. They may not said, and it may not have been a factor for all of Mrs. Bachmann’s supporters, but in their hearts they like seeing a native born daughter doing well.
Even if they know that she won’t win the Iowa Caucus in early 2012 or the Republican nomination; if they can shake things up a bit by voting for her now; they’ll take some pride in doing so and vote for her with a smile on their faces. Trust me, I know what I am talking about on this. I grew up in Iowa, most of my family is there, and I loving going back there every chance I get.
Third, the historical odds of anyone going from the House of Representatives to the White House is extremely small. While I don’t have the exact figures in front of me, I think it is only 2 or 3 people that have gone from serving in the House of Representatives directly to the White House. (I’ll see if I can find the data and post it for all to see.) Those odds make the candidacies of Ron Paul and Michell Bachmann more of a side show than anything else.
But that brings us back to where we started. The mainstream media doesn’t really care if Michelle Bachmann or Ron Paul really have a chance at the White House. What they are interested in is “Good TV,” not discussing the issues or educating voters; that would require too much work. What the media wants is someone who is easy to follow around where they can get a gaffe or some stupid comment from that they can get lots of air time out of. It’s the way it works.
I think the Republican nomination is quickly shaping up to be a two (2) horse race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney; and everyone else jockeying for the Vice-Presidential nomination.
What I hope is that, that when it comes time for the Iowa in February of 2012, the caucus goers put some heavy thought into the issues and who they are voting for. As the 1st in the nation, they have a lot of say in the outcome of the nominating process. Last time around, they laid a couple of goose eggs and now the nation is paying the price. This time, is they take their responsibility seriously and help send this country down the right path.
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